ukraine military assessment

Ukraine Military Assessment - Russian forces carried out limited offensives on 13 March, only gaining new ground in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The General Staff of Ukraine reported that the Russian military had taken steps to resume combat preparations and regroup combat units as of the afternoon of March 13.[1] The Russian army continues to gather reinforcements and is trying to improve medical assistance in Kiev and in the southern part of the country. The Russian military may plan to resume a large-scale offensive on both axes in the coming week, but it may take a long time (or may not even start) to mobilize the military forces needed to complete the encirclement of Kiev.

Russia is pulling more and more troops overseas to support operations in Ukraine, though these deployments are unlikely to change forces in the coming week. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 13 that 800 personnel from the Russian 102nd base in Armenia were dispatched to an undisclosed location in Russia on March 9-10 in preparation for deployment to Ukraine.[2] He also said Russia was recalling some of the missiles sent to Nagorno-Karabakh to compensate for the damage done to Ukraine. [3] Russia will also send additional troops to Armenia, Tajikistan and Syria to replace Ukraine. Ukraine military officials said Russia is planning to send 1,500 soldiers of the Russian 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) to Belarus by rail at an unknown time.

Ukraine Military Assessment

Ukrainian intelligence detailed Russia's actions in sending former Assad forces to Ukraine and recruiting Syrian and Libyan soldiers on March 13. The Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR) reported that Russia was recruiting investors in Syria and Libya and will pay them in full. $300-$600 per month.[5] Russia is said to have opened 14 recruitment centers in Syria and will transport depositors to Chkalovsky Airport in Moscow Oblast after training. GUR said Russia has already raised "thousands" of Syrian soldiers, mainly those known for heavy weapons and artillery, from the National Defense Forces and the 5th Army Corps, two of Assad's Russian-backed groups. . Russia may soon withdraw its Syrian troops based on the national defense militia and 5th corps, depending on the capacity of its air carrier. However, even the fastest trained Syrian and Libyan troops could take weeks or months to deploy in Ukraine and would likely be outnumbered by poor Russian troops in Ukraine. Russia may not be able to build the reinforcements and replacements needed to effectively replace military forces around Kiev next week, but it can develop long-term replacement weapons for low-cost deployments.

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The Kremlin may seek direct control of Belarusian units to send to Ukraine, but faces Belarusian resistance. Independent Ukrainian media reported on March 13 that Russian authorities are monitoring Belarusian military forces in an effort to suppress efforts by Belarusian soldiers to refuse to go to war in Ukraine and reported "threats" in parts of Brest.[ 6] ISW cannot independently verify these reports by other means at this time; if confirmed, the reports support ISW's earlier assessment that the Kremlin wants to take Belarus into war but faces opposition from both the Belarusian military and Belarusian President Lukashenko. The General Staff of Ukraine reported that the Russian army established a base for the preparation and recovery of military equipment in Kulichikha, Belarus (17 kilometers from the border) on March 13.

Russian missiles hit the Yavoriv military training center northwest of Lviv less than 10 kilometers from the Polish border, killing at least 35 Ukrainians on March 13.[8] The US and NATO conduct many of their own joint exercises and Ukrainian troops in Yavoriv and Ukraine could use Yavoriv as their first military aid station through Poland. The Kremlin announced on March 12 that it would consider Western aid deliveries to Ukraine as legitimate military targets and likely hold protests in western Ukraine next week to block delivery to Ukraine.[9] The Russian military is increasingly using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in Ukraine, including the Forpost-R UCAV on March 13.[10] However, Ukraine's military and air defense remain active and said they shot down two Ka-52 helicopters, a Su-34 bomber, an unidentified Sukhoi aircraft and two drones on March 13.

Principal Effort: Axis of Kiev: Russian actions on the Axis of Kiev aim to encircle the city from the northwest, west, and east.

Russian forces have not been active in northwest Kiev in the past 24 hours for the third consecutive day. The Ukrainian General Staff also said that the Russian military gave priority to reviewing Ukrainian positions in preparation for a new attack on Kiev.

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Russian troops did not conduct offensive operations in northwest Kiev for the third day in a row.[12] Ukraine's army chief said the Russian military was focused only on searching and "clarifying Ukrainian territory" in northwest Kiev, the first time Ukraine's General Staff said the Russians they are watching every day. [13] Fighting continued in Irpin, a western suburb of Kiev, and Russian forces killed American journalist Brent Renaud in the city on March 13.

The Ukrainian army chief said the Russian army in north-east Kiev had "got to safety" in the past 24 hours and was focused on recovering goods and carrying out searches. [15] The General Staff also reported that Russia had sent additional weapons from the Central Military Region. The Russian military may want to strengthen communication channels in northeastern Ukraine in the fight against insurgents before resuming offensive operations northeast of Kiev.

Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked the city of Izyum, southeast of Kharkiv, on March 13. The Ukrainian General Staff also announced at noon local time on March 13 that the BTG of the 6th Combined Arms Army had departed for Belgorod to restore military strength after fighting in the city of Kharkiv.[17]

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian army is gathering reserves in Luhansk oblast for the relaunch of the attack on Severodonetsk. [18] The Russian Defense Ministry reported that Russian forces captured areas east and south of Severodonetsk on March 13.[19]

Ukraine War: Despite Russia's Success In Donbas, This Is Only The End Of The Beginning

Russian forces and their allies launched a series of successful attacks north of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast on 13 March. resisted the Russian invasion of Volnovakha.[21] The Russian Defense Ministry reported that its troops advanced 14 km on March 12. [22] Russian troops fired artillery in Donetsk Oblast on 12-13 March. [23]

Russian troops continued to attack Mariupol from time to time on 13 March. The Ukrainian military claimed to have killed 15 Russian soldiers and said the Ukrainian soldiers remained happy despite their lack of communication.[24] The Russian Army cannot capture Mariupol via direct assault without a combined force (which is unlikely to be assembled). Russia will continue to destroy the city and keep threats low to force the city to surrender.

The Russian Army did nothing offensive in Mykolayiv or Zaporizhia on 13 March. to the city but did not attack on March 13.[26] Russian forces may consider advancing to encircle Zaporizhia but may lack the necessary strength to do so while Russian forces in the south remain engaged around Mariupol.

Ukrainian protests in Kherson which had escalated. The General Staff of Ukraine reported that Russian troops were fired during a large demonstration (according to independent Ukrainian media there are thousands) in Kherson on March 13, but reported no casualties. On March 13, Ukrainians also protested in occupied Berdyansk and Melitopol. confirmed, this Russian effort may point to Russia's most likely strategy to control Ukraine: partition. "People's Republics" followed by Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. Russian forces in Ukraine may have taken a short break on March 5 as they plan to resume operations against Kiev, Kharkiv, Mykolayiv and possibly Odesa in the next 24-48 hours. The Russian military has not launched any major operations against Kiev, Kharkiv or Mykolayiv in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian forces near Kharkiv, on the other hand, staged protests that allegedly penetrated the Ukraine-Russia border.

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Main Effort - Kiev Axis: Russia's actions on the Kiev Axis are a major effort to encircle the city from the west and support Chernihiv and Sumy's efforts to encircle it from the northeast and east.

Russia's actions against Kiev have made little headway in the past 24 hours. ISW determined that the Russian advance on the eastern border of the city mentioned in our March 4 statement was an attack or preemptive action that did not take place beyond the cities of Nizhyn and Priluky on the Sumy road; we have changed the navigation mode in the terrain map accordingly. The Russian military has not made much progress